To be a profitable punter in soccer betting, it’s best to intelligently guess two predominant issues: the chance of a win and the dimensions of the stake. On-line betting suggestions and staff information may help you to estimate the chance of a win, however selecting the stake measurement is a extra sophisticated process that requires every punter to resolve based on his particular person betting technique. link alternatif 188bet

This text summarizes a analysis meant to optimize the usage of Kelly technique, essentially the most worthwhile of all the present betting methods. The analysis relies on a comparability between statistics of betting earnings of high European soccer leagues that performed throughout 2008/09 and people enjoying in 2009/10 seasons.

Information and Strategies

  • The analysis was performed based mostly on match outcomes and common betting odds from 60+ bookmakers taken from the next European Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Tremendous Lig.
  • Every match consequence receives its personal worth outlined by multiplication: odds x chance of a win. When this worth is larger than one, it’s thought-about as a “worth wager”.
  • The chance of residence win/draw/away wins on this analysis is outlined by the frequency of their look in a nationwide match.
  • Based on Kelly’s technique, the wager for every consequence is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the chance of a win). For instance, in case your wealth is 1000$, p is 50% and the percentages are 2.5, then the preferable wager is the same as 1000$*(zero.5 – zero.5/(2.5-1))=166$
  • The punter’s revenue is calculated by assuming he locations a wager based on the Kelly’s technique for these outcomes whose worth is the closest to the worth wager outlined a priory.
  • An optimum worth wager is a wager leading to a maximal revenue for a punter.

Analysis Abstract


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